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Sunday, February 19, 2012

Spring Gas Prices Are Set To Reach Record Highs-Could Reach $4.25 By April


According to a recent article from the associated press, spring gas prices are set to reach record highs.

At $3.53 a gallon, prices are already up 25 cents since Jan. 1. And experts say they could reach a record $4.25 a gallon by late April.

"You're going to see a lot more staycations this year," says Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "When the price gets anywhere near $4, you really see people react."

The surge in gas prices follows an increase in the price of oil.

Oil around the world is priced differently. Brent crude from the North Sea is a proxy for the foreign oil that's imported by U.S. refineries and turned into gasoline and other fuels. Its price has risen 11 percent so far this year, to around $119 a barrel, because of tensions with Iran, a cold snap in Europe and rising demand from developing nations. West Texas Intermediate, used to price oil produced in the U.S., is up 4 percent to around $103 a barrel. That's 19 percent higher than a year earlier.

Higher gas prices could hurt consumer spending and curtail the recent improvement in the U.S. economy.

A 25-cent jump in gasoline prices, if sustained over a year, would cost the economy about $35 billion. That's only 0.2 percent of the total U.S. economy, but economists say it's a meaningful amount, especially at a time when growth is only so-so. The economy grew 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, a rate considered modest following a recession.

Gas prices are already an issue in the presidential campaign. Republican candidate Newt Gingrich spoke several times this week about opening up more federal land to oil and gas drilling as a path toward U.S. energy independence — and lower pump prices.

"Our goals should be to get gasoline to $2.50 or less so that working families can actually get to work and retired families can travel," Gingrich said at a campaign event in Los Angeles Thursday.

High oil and gas prices now set the stage for even sharper increases at the pump because gas typically rises in March and April.

Every spring, refiners suspend operations to switch the type of gasoline they make. Supplies of wintertime gas are sold off before March, when refineries need to start making a new formula of gasoline that's required in the summer.

That can mean less supply for service stations, resulting in higher gas prices. And summertime gasoline is more expensive to make. The government mandates that it contain less butane and other cheap organic compounds because they contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone, a primary constituent in smog. That means more oil, a costlier component, is needed to produce each gallon.

The Oil Price Information Service predicts that gasoline could peak at $4.25 a gallon by the end of April. That would top the record of $4.11 in July 2008.

The national average for gasoline began the year at $3.28 a gallon. The average price for February so far is $3.49 a gallon. That's up from $3.17 a gallon last February, a record at the time. Back in 2007, before the recession hit, the average for February was $2.25 a gallon.

Prices are higher on the East and West Coasts, where gasoline has risen above $3.70 in Connecticut, New York, Washington D.C. and California. This isn't unusual — states on the coasts charge some of the nation's highest gas taxes.

High gas prices put a strain on many people's budgets.

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Thursday, February 16, 2012

Gasoline Prices To Soar Well Above $4 Per Gallon

Gasoline prices will soar "well above" $4 a gallon and possibly higher this summer due to "perverted logic" as rising crude prices force refiners to close their doors, further crimping supply and pushing prices higher, says commodities research analyst and trader Stephen Schork.

Gasoline prices are currently hovering around $3.50 a gallon, higher than they normally are this time of year, according to the AAA Fuel Gauge Report.

In 2008, when gasoline broke records, average prices didn't hit $3.50 a gallon until April 21, which is more than two months away, the Los Angeles Times reports, citing the AAA Fuel Gauge Report data.

Iranian threats to close down the Strait of Hormuz and crimp the world of crude supply is sending global oil prices climbing.


Pricier crude is forcing U.S. refiners to pass on costs to consumers, who balk when prices at the pump approach $3.50.

When consumers buy less, refiners close down due to lack of demand, although those closures erode even more supply from the market, thus sending gasoline prices back up again as part of a vicious cycle.

"You have this kind of perverted logic now," Schork told Moneynews in an exclusive interview. "The refiners cannot make money, because there is no demand for what they are making or the demand is very weak with high gasoline prices. So they are either limiting their capacity or they are shutting in their refineries altogether."

More than "300,000 barrels a day of gasoline production on the East Coast of the United States is currently shut in, it's closed," said Schork, editor of the energy newsletter The Schork Report.

"We are on this hamster wheel where high crude prices from geopolitical fears are driving refiners out of business. Refiners are out of business because demand for gasoline is weak and the fact that refiners are pulling back is driving gasoline prices even higher."

Furthermore, as the spring approaches, seasonal factors push up fuel prices, as more expensive inputs are used in refineries to produce warm-weather blends.

Increased driving in the U.S. also pumps up prices in spring and summer.

"That prices are at all-time highs for this point of the season given where crude oil prices are trading right now, gasoline prices this summer on the East Coast are going to be well above $4 a gallon," Schork says.

In the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains states, ample oil supply is available to keep prices lower, although pipeline capacity is lacking to bring that supply to thirsty East Coast markets.

Operators along one pipeline, run by Canadian firm Enbridge, are working to reverse the flow of the line to carry more oil from the upper reaches of North America further south by June, which may provide some relief, Schork says.

"Now the situation is are we going to be paying records? It's kind of hard to say we're not going to be paying records at this point," Schork says.

Repeat performance

Still, however, the world has seen global oil supply shrink in the past.

Last year, the Arab Spring uprising spread to Libya, and supply fell sharply during the chaos.

And while Iran may beat its chest and threaten the world in the face of sanctions, in the end, the country has to sell its oil in order to keep petrodollars flowing into its economy.

Iran also cannot close the Strait as it has to import gasoline and other derivatives — while Iran is rich in crude, it refines very little.

Adding to that, Europe has said it will embargo Iranian oil and should others follow suit, the only buyers remaining would likely be China and India, which would enjoy the position to dictate prices to Tehran since nobody else would be buying.

Furthermore, any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz would cut off the shipping lanes used by oil-rich Arab countries, which could launch military campaigns themselves should Iran make good on its threats.

Translation: Iran will back down.

"The likelihood that Iranian barrels go missing is limited," Schork says.

The access to Libyan oil returning to the market, possibly more Canadian oil flowing south and the likelihood that Iran will stand down offers some relief.

Yet consumers shouldn't breathe easy, as if and when Iran determines that isolation and economic disaster is not worth pursuing a nuclear bomb, geopolitical tensions have already pushed up oil enough.

"East Coast refiners are paying upwards of $120 a barrel to get oil into their refineries, and $120 a barrel in the East Coast translates well over $4 or $4.10 or $4.20 for a gallon of regular gasoline this summer," he told Moneynews. "Some market areas will be closer to $5 than $4.

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Sunday, January 8, 2012

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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Europe Agrees to Ban Oil Imports From Iran

From Reuters

What will this do to the price of oil? By Summer the price of a gallon of gas could get ugly.

European governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, EU diplomats said on Wednesday, dealing a blow to Tehran that crowns new Western sanctions months before an Iranian election.

The prospective embargo by the European Union, along with tough U.S. financial measures signed into law by President Barack Obama on New Year's Eve, form a concerted Western campaign to hold back Iran's nuclear program.

Iran says the program is strictly non-military, but Western countries say a November U.N. report shows it has sought to build an atomic bomb. Talks between Tehran and major powers broke down a year ago.

Diplomats said EU envoys held talks on Iran in the last days of December, and that any objections to an oil embargo had been dropped - notably from crisis-hit Greece which gets a third of its oil from Iran, relying on Tehran's lenient financing. Spain and Italy are also big buyers.

"A lot of progress has been made," one EU diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The principle of an oil embargo is agreed. It is not being debated anymore."

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland called the EU moves "the kinds of steps that we would like to see not just from our close allies and partners in places like Europe but from countries around the world."

"We do believe that this is consistent with tightening the noose on Iran economically," she said.

A U.S. Treasury official said Tehran's oil revenues could be choked off without disrupting global oil markets.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will travel to China and Japan next week to discuss U.S. sanctions on Iran and the state of the global economy.

The embargo will force Tehran to find other buyers for oil. EU countries buy about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iran's 2.6 million bpd in exports, making the bloc collectively the second largest market for Iranian crude after China.

Prime Minister Mario Monti said Italy was ready to back an oil embargo as long as it was imposed gradually and deliveries to repay Tehran's debts to Italian energy firm ENI were exempted.

The news caused a spike rise in oil prices, with Brent crude peaking at nearly $114 a barrel in intraday trading, up nearly $2 from Tuesday's close. Brent crude closed at $113.70, up $1.57. Crude for February delivery was up 26 cents Wednesday, to $103.22.

Tehran insisted it would have no trouble: "We could very easily replace these customers," said S. M. Qamsari, International Director of the National Iranian Oil Co.

Read more...

Monday, December 12, 2011

'With sanctions on Iran oil, US chokes own economy'



Iran is the world's #3 oil supplier in the world. If there is any confrontation with Iran, oil could skyrocket to $150 per barrel or more almost immediately.

XP3 from Fuel Direct helps soften the blow of high gas prices at the pump!

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Oil prices rise amid global economic worries

From the Washington Post:


With the world economy so weak, why are oil prices so high?

Economic crisis grips Europe, slow growth plagues the United States, and China’s breakneck expansion shows signs of a slight slowing.

 Euro zone leaders aim to stem the continent’s debt woes as protesters take to the streets in some countries to show their dissatisfaction with austerity measures.

Yet the global price of oil might set a record this year as consumption creeps up and world output struggles to keep pace.

The Energy Information Administration said this week that the average retail price of regular gasoline is the highest ever recorded during Thanksgiving week, 49 cents a gallon more than this time last year. AAA says this year motorists are on track to pay a record $490 billion for gasoline, burning a hole in consumers’ pockets.

Recently, prices at the gas pump have tapered off. AAA says that gasoline prices have dropped about 12 cents in the past month to a nationwide average of $3.33 a gallon for regular, giving holiday motorists some reason to give thanks.

But this season is usually a period of relatively weak gasoline demand, and retail gasoline prices are still high by historical standards in the United States. Although U.S. motorists seem to change their driving habits most when gas prices near $4 a gallon, the EIA statistics show that consumption this month has been as low as or lower than any November since early in the previous decade.

Moreover, the prices of other petroleum products have been heading higher. With cold weather starting to set in, home heating oil prices stood at $3.94 per gallon as of Nov. 21, an increase of 83 cents a gallon from a year earlier, the EIA said. The higher prices will primarily affect homeowners in New England, where heating oil is still commonly used.

Diesel prices have climbed, which analysts said was a sign of improved economic activity and constraints on refiners because of the government’s low sulfur requirements. A recent Barclays Capital report said that total miles driven by U.S. truckers was up 3.5 percent over the year before.

Diesel prices Wednesday stood at $3.98 a gallon, up 13 cents from a month ago and up 80 cents from a year ago, AAA said.

Diesel prices, closely linked to the trucking business, suggest a disconnect between the economy and the glum mood of consumers.

“The sentiment indicators are gloomy, but the production indicators are pretty good,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank. “If you add up what consumers are spending, the numbers are higher than last year. If you ask them how they feel, they say ‘terrible.’ ”

Behind the retail prices of petroleum products lies a global crude market that is still roiled by geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty.

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil this year has averaged more than $94 a barrel, only slightly below the record year of 2008 before the recent recession, and nearly 50 percent more than levels just five years ago. The more widely used benchmark Brent crude in London has cost more than $100 a barrel since early February. On Wednesday, it fell $1.81, or 1.7 percent, to $107.22 a barrel for January delivery after pessimistic economic signs in Europe.